TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$488,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$455,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $488,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01e7…d932backed Yes52c42,858$22,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,281.192152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No80c29,611$23,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,032.2819535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes40c24,741$9,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,857.3187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…a96ebacked No46c22,295$10,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,102.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes9c22,000$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,078.8628021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed No72c13,772$9,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,808.32777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes6c12,843$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc747…324bbacked Yes2c10,685$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.096622.7%15 W · 51 L+12.3wins+0.19per pick4cpaid+272.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed No63c9,387$5,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450.0137745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25ab…84f7backed Yes4c7,411$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes22c6,449$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.2758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes47c6,401$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,019.8522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,734$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.141,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3360…955bbacked Yes1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes64c4,667$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.995954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed No74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes14c3,837$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.173923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No40c3,750$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2503633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes1c3,334$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes28c3,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8404839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9750…0969backed No75c2,849$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes23c2,695$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61012129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes23c2,613$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.718521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes10c2,268$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.93821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes2c2,074$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.223411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes23c2,045$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.093330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0185…79c7backed Yes7c2,021$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+877.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3803836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64dd…c377backed Yes1c1,793$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes4c1,758$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce24…6239backed Yes30c1,667$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Yes30c1,644$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6924…33f4backed Yes4c1,500$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c1,422$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,418$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.766785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6584858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes2c1,388$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.09170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes7c1,335$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.583998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes27c1,209$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.186026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x59e1…431dbacked Yes25c1,100$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2761315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…333ebacked Yes1c1,069$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+371.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7651…251abacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes63c924.85$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.146250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab4e…ba10backed Yes1c923.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d79…b410backed Yes2c869.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes7c819.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.092417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6374…891fbacked Yes15c806.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Yes3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+160.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No48c799.99$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.994341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No42c728.64$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.0364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes41c682.5$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.914654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02af…a5adbacked Yes48c633.02$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No62c632.24$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.656758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes25c616.38$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8540643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes48c600$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d34…b10dbacked Yes67c562.9$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f6e…cd0fbacked Yes53c561.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes4c554.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.651285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226c…6bafbacked Yes36c544.38$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.27616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+202.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37a…6db7backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2152864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9204…7bd5backed Yes56c499.99$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.993030%9 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes29c476$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0414019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No50c472.86$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.172250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b4…c169backed Yes39c436.73$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.691010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x874b…ee58backed Yes24c412$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes35c395.07$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.327767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabe5…a37bbacked Yes70c356.65$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes31c340.31$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.192213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes43c332.1$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.691118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-74.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7952…025abacked Yes45c328.91$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No47c313.85$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.341668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dcf…4792backed Yes5c313.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ab…8d7cbacked Yes25c308$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a7b…1f36backed Yes25c280.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c7…74e2backed Yes54c278.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.91250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked Yes25c270$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.42653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes60c268.53$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.123426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4b…519fbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807c…94f9backed No68c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes4c243.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103743.2%16 W · 21 L+8.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+189.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes42c241.45$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes42c236.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.493030%9 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes15c232.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.025637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes44c225$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x981f…8993backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001735.3%6 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+60.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No76c220$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.84650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b7…9bd3backed Yes32c219.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.84837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bdf…89c4backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff3…5971backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed No44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1124658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-46.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4363…d6e0backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+633.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5ff7…85d9backed Yes57c174.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8088…7fc1backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed Yes47c156$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.211244.6%50 W · 62 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.