Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5705748f24d8e6a30b4684123ed61e7af0870cf40501bc6ae5aae664bfe5f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,515$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.44 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed Yes | 21c | 12,000$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,143$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 3c | 4,642$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 5c | 3,888$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.86 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,205$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 22c | 3,103$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.59 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 79c | 2,532$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.65 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,648$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,096$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,064$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 20c | 1,015$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 989.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 897.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 870.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 5c | 822.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 760.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 16c | 679$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 18c | 615$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…6827backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 582.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 5c | 569.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 13c | 381.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…0577backed Yes | 5c | 328$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 22c | 315.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…2181backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…127cbacked Yes | 8c | 216.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 13c | 156.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…058dbacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…f625backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…57c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…8670backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…3873backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…d7e2backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.