Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0af15c8aeb6bf84ca7007c6c5a4ded37c148fd55d655e95525ca3161ba7c5d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 19c | 40,000$7,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,449.99 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 3c | 10,920$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.46 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,498$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 79c | 6,012$4,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.93 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,758$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.73 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 7c | 5,502$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.64 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…d997backed Yes | 13c | 4,188$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 6c | 3,297$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 28c | 3,260$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 33c | 3,008$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.83 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 58c | 2,320$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.3 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 77c | 2,109$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.75 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,034$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,896$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,801$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 1,745$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 30c | 1,480$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.72 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,299$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,174$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…067bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,043$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 4c | 979.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 9c | 860.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 858.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes | 11c | 763.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a7…3becbacked Yes | 5c | 738.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 705.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…a644backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 7c | 693.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 14c | 683.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 610$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 10c | 562.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 538.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 527.79$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 9c | 520$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 8c | 516.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 3c | 503$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 15c | 486$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3ae9backed Yes | 51c | 480$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…d5acbacked Yes | 10c | 390$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…be08backed Yes | 26c | 386.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 33c | 329$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d74…596bbacked Yes | 6c | 316.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 306.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…ee20backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…f1e5backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…e293backed No | 77c | 193.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…1d4bbacked Yes | 5c | 192.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 60c | 166.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…f9e3backed Yes | 7c | 162.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 10c | 154.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed No | 70c | 143.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bf…2a09backed No | 65c | 114.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…5e07backed Yes | 12c | 103.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…423bbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd43…0699backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…31bebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f6…2f2ebacked No | 54c | 93.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…454abacked Yes | 45c | 89.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +114%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…7d4dbacked Yes | 13c | 83.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…31f4backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 30c | 40.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed No | 52c | 36.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…d7e2backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…73f1backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 53c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…058dbacked No | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 70c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.