TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$259,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes19c40,000$7,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,449.9912025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes3c10,920$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.46270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c7,498$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.994754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c6,526$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.581,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No79c6,012$4,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.9340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes5c5,758$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.736723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes7c5,502$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.64904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce7b…d997backed Yes13c4,188$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes6c3,297$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3690%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes28c3,260$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9006615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes33c3,008$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.8319535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No58c2,320$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.35869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No77c2,109$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.754050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes2c2,034$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.353821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7404858.3%28 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c1,896$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.626785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes3c1,801$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c1,745$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf17f…b558backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-91.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes30c1,480$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.7222550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes8c1,299$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes10c1,174$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.375111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d54…067bbacked Yes3c1,043$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081c…308bbacked Yes4c979.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408327.7%23 W · 60 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes9c860.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.283998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c858.07$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4431523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes11c763.39$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.21010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a7…3becbacked Yes5c738.71$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes8c705.92$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3613117.6%23 W · 108 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed Yes7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes7c693.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.641285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f72…230abacked Yes14c683.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.55185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes7c610$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.582581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes10c562.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.978521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes8c538.32$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.061375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c527.79$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd859…38c5backed Yes9c520$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.891437.7%11 W · 132 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes8c516.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.532683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe929…299fbacked Yes3c503$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…f46cbacked Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e93…e71abacked Yes15c486$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.413729.7%11 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3ae9backed Yes51c480$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa894…7607backed Yes13c461.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604112.2%5 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…d5acbacked Yes10c390$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60be…be08backed Yes26c386.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes33c329$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11012129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes6c316.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes6c306.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.396320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2db…ee20backed No66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3612020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.653520%7 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ad…f1e5backed Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes12c299.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3714019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4985.1%5 W · 93 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f2…132bbacked Yes51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ab…e293backed No77c193.04$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a6…1d4bbacked Yes5c192.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No60c166.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9610067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ffc…e4dabacked Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a8…f9e3backed Yes7c162.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+126.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes10c154.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f1…1744backed No70c143.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+116.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9bf…2a09backed No65c114.8$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.52887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick56cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdf4…5e07backed Yes12c103.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2818162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d9…a756backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef39…423bbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.32458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eeb…c3d7backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd43…0699backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced4…5055backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-54.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x397b…31bebacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f6…2f2ebacked No54c93.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.04475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cd…454abacked Yes45c89.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+114%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d62…7d4dbacked Yes13c83.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8390%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe04…9a42backed Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.43435.3%12 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes32c78.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd2c…31f4backed Yes47c70$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes30c40.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.864654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed No52c36.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.622763%17 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd931…d7e2backed No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4efb…73f1backed Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No53c21.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.11533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-48%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeae…058dbacked No64c20.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22475%18 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked No70c18.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.714340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…29b4backed No65c15.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.