Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e041448a360439fc3569dff37356e2525d762e183d0ed0f2b9bf252ded59a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 26,173$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.09 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed Yes | 2c | 6,102$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…4c4bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,678$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 6c | 5,444$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,754$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,324$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,722$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…5573backed Yes | 5c | 2,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,645$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,513$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 3c | 1,509$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,464$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…79c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,237$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +877.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,202$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cd…f566backed Yes | 4c | 966.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 808.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 5c | 682.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…93c1backed Yes | 3c | 640.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…67b0backed Yes | 7c | 599.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 594.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadb1…6740backed Yes | 5c | 517.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…57c2backed Yes | 3c | 506.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…7607backed Yes | 2c | 491.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 478.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…2181backed Yes | 6c | 359.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…dd35backed Yes | 3c | 343.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…b09bbacked Yes | 9c | 298.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 8c | 212.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +150%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…1f2fbacked Yes | 7c | 143.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.