Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe74d831fe0ff1e434645f34abd4f7817f797c0710c77a203a015d95063d63796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 9c | 18,892$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 9,901$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.07 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,008$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 5,101$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.12 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,090$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.14 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,985$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,770$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 7c | 1,474$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 6c | 1,333$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,321$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 1,299$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.41 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 1,222$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 6c | 1,203$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 1,161$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,112$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…b76bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,089$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…a964backed Yes | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +231.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 941.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 828.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 8c | 800$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 18c | 782.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e266backed Yes | 8c | 721.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 15c | 678.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 11c | 600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 13c | 577.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…ffefbacked Yes | 13c | 502$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 12c | 489.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 465.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 425.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…8f30backed Yes | 14c | 387.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…29cdbacked Yes | 5c | 375$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 9c | 359.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e6…67b0backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 217.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 10c | 179.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…277ebacked Yes | 11c | 173.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…c599backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…4813backed Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…d6e0backed Yes | 20c | 151.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +633.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…9bd3backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…2e0abacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…a60fbacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e3…1aafbacked Yes | 11c | 130.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 8c | 129.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 128.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…6827backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 10c | 104.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…f9e3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…9d7dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…3873backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed Yes | 13c | 85.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd2…38b4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.