Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7007d108819c87373d302a1fc8054c2f3f130369bdcd09ce7ff7da5255823ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x575d…f249backed No | 0c | 19,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 14c | 10,555$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…cf32backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502f…ddf3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 23c | 4,454$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.11 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 79c | 3,929$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.84 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 76c | 2,323$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.39 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…6258backed No | 21c | 1,600$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 77c | 1,135$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.46 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 908.55$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 14c | 862.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 14c | 699.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 78c | 583.46$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d043backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 69c | 444.64$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…b10dbacked Yes | 64c | 346.56$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 10c | 299.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 14c | 244.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 98 | 5.1%5 W · 93 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 75c | 180.1$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…5e03backed Yes | 64c | 156.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Yes | 80c | 113.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…c07cbacked No | 21c | 109.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed No | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +150%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 61c | 76.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…6eb4backed No | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…c3b1backed No | 30c | 49.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…8aa7backed No | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…b1dabacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…612abacked No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…7abbbacked Yes | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…ae60backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43b…47e1backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…cb82backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52b…7f08backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.