Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a2475ed595ded617106c1e828118b1ce27ada4a10b7fdf56bbe36a6fd8b2a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 33c | 29,994$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,995.55 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…22d8backed Yes | 64c | 20,718$13,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,434.23 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 59c | 10,691$6,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,343.85 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 39c | 8,205$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,005.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 73c | 4,928$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.37 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 78c | 4,895$3,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.75 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 57c | 4,671$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.93 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 27c | 3,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.81 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 66c | 2,860$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.81 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Yes | 51c | 1,914$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 27c | 1,863$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 38c | 1,533$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 1,450$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.29 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e18…4c4bbacked No | 25c | 1,234$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 41c | 1,013$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.69 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 66c | 1,000$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed No | 58c | 851.43$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed Yes | 60c | 849.17$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.51 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 50c | 670$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.1 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 35c | 629.49$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.58 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 597.38$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 558.42$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes | 40c | 524$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 60c | 495.01$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 61c | 486.76$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 59c | 479.68$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.07 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 60c | 434.95$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.95 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 52c | 431.58$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.77 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 34c | 393.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.07 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 53c | 375.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.93 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 35c | 366.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Yes | 58c | 359$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…79c7backed Yes | 51c | 312.9$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 76c | 161.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 24c | 155.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…891fbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…6258backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e1…704bbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…74e2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…966cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed Yes | 54c | 94.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 54c | 76.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…b1dabacked Yes | 35c | 70.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4122…6c07backed Yes | 52c | 70.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 56c | 68.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…9d7dbacked Yes | 55c | 63.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 47c | 49.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…4225backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed No | 48c | 45.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993d…3174backed No | 26c | 44.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…6d14backed Yes | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…e5c6backed No | 56c | 39.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Yes | 54c | 38.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 55c | 38.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7085…5b58backed Yes | 45c | 37.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9aa…089dbacked No | 32c | 37.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked No | 49c | 35.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…dab8backed Yes | 77c | 32.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…3594backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…025abacked Yes | 72c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 43c | 27.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…6eb4backed No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0b…09c6backed Yes | 50c | 26.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 64c | 26.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…c3b1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf98…2649backed Yes | 75c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.