Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44682925724cbdb8c084790dd02eba5981bc11745b95d9aef618682c81d52eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 21c | 15,773$3,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380.7 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 9c | 8,206$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.61 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 27c | 5,142$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 17c | 4,655$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.35 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 27c | 3,733$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…c8a7backed Yes | 17c | 3,250$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 79c | 3,167$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.24 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,864$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,466$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Yes | 14c | 2,333$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 2,110$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.42 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…e0bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 12c | 1,247$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,093$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 978.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 68c | 906.48$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.69 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 858.61$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.82 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…95b6backed Yes | 29c | 850$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…e1e2backed Yes | 8c | 812.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c47…88b0backed Yes | 19c | 750.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 680.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 28c | 673$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 625.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 24c | 600$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…012dbacked Yes | 17c | 589.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226c…6bafbacked Yes | 18c | 563.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8309…67a2backed Yes | 12c | 542$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 529.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 26c | 503.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 18c | 487.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 26c | 476.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b4…c169backed Yes | 20c | 452.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 6c | 416.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 405.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 28c | 355.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e266backed Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 31c | 324.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 16c | 311.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…2261backed Yes | 19c | 253.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79db…7c93backed Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdf…89c4backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 26c | 169.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…d6e0backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +633.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 140.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfb…0b5abacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 9c | 128.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…8362backed Yes | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 18c | 103.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…9bd3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…318bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ab…de67backed Yes | 22c | 98.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…ed36backed Yes | 22c | 90.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7952…025abacked Yes | 29c | 80.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…5836backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked No | 72c | 64.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 73cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a5…fe97backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…5c78backed Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…5738backed No | 80c | 34.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…0040backed Yes | 32c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked No | 76c | 31.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…4680backed No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.