Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82bf17e43f9eb42d29580f93e58d265aac3af1d3e8e198b82b2ad6be0801ab63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 20,097$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.75 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 4c | 12,001$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 5c | 9,660$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…0938backed Yes | 4c | 8,000$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 4c | 4,678$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,716$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,626$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…012dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,549$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,268$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…a85ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,240$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…1e9dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,058$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 6c | 972.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 930.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 923.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 4c | 878.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 651.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 564.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e1…704bbacked Yes | 7c | 433.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…4387backed Yes | 4c | 415.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…efcbbacked Yes | 6c | 337.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 242.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…d6e0backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +633.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…f9e3backed Yes | 7c | 209.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ed…9f94backed Yes | 9c | 165$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…9bd3backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 9-15?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 9-15?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 February 9-15?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.