TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,810 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6837…15e1backed No25c11,017$2,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,236.611637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb04…ec13backed No58c10,697$6,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,523.972536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes80c5,686$4,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,526.462123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.9wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-60%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2b45…d5f4backed Yes59c3,934$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-84%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No42c2,813$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,635.764751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes10c2,152$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bea…b77ebacked Yes2c1,940$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae5…bd96backed Yes2c1,900$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4dd…eaa2backed Yes4c1,752$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ef5…aafdbacked Yes3c1,588$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ab…300abacked Yes3c1,500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.981118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c1,356$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.125311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…1910backed Yes78c1,275$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No27c993.84$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.8833123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda3…3bcfbacked Yes48c965.12$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes43c946.43$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.426328.6%18 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…95eabacked Yes51c907.97$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes7c842.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.033517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9288…8303backed Yes54c806.24$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed Yes30c800$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402556%14 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+109.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc18f…c56ebacked Yes2c740.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes76c721.93$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No78c718.93$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.0448236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x400d…f372backed Yes4c709.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No46c677.39$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.88567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a81…c57fbacked No23c662$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.7560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c657.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.781,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No23c635.93$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.1316453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8cd…dcabbacked Yes71c566.64$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes12c549.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.182119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c510$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.511231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b0…aa98backed Yes42c457.72$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c451.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.262781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x404a…9bf5backed Yes70c401$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes71c400.07$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.85151%26 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18fd…3f81backed Yes60c378.4$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes5c375$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.147936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes42c359.48$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes70c349.87$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6112030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c347.71$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No27c336.84$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9348414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd082…86f0backed Yes62c327.47$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No57c299.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1298040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c288$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.73390%0 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3490…381bbacked Yes62c273.13$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+157.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed No64c257.25$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.75731.6%18 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c255.27$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes20c231.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.276127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b6…a5e9backed Yes73c225.73$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ef…143bbacked No25c210$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.54955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacd0…e0f5backed Yes29c195.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20da…3f28backed Yes72c193.9$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No71c192.31$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2324634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No63c186.77$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.758752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba7…0d63backed Yes61c179.6$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No38c172.43$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.313034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No41c168$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.458332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes13c156.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96bb…95e0backed Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752f…9fbebacked Yes10c152.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd89b…15dcbacked Yes48c140.42$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3671…5088backed Yes72c138.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-57.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No19c133.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.563122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb94f…9546backed Yes75c132.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdac9…1ad9backed Yes79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes50c126$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.641850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fa…acecbacked Yes56c125.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bca…6f2bbacked Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c123.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1113333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ce5…d3fcbacked Yes42c116.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c38…919dbacked No28c109$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No63c107.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.320841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ad…1588backed No13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+71.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.52119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.52119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.52119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.055572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0eea…f37cbacked Yes61c98.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick66cpaid-53.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes56c97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.329226.1%24 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No29c95.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.771711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No13c93.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.053259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked No57c90.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-74.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a04…e58dbacked No17c87.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+486.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed No46c71.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No25c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes76c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed No28c66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.85825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0d…f4d9backed Yes60c64.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c61.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.516015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6100%0 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed No23c59.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.261855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes70c55.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9719836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13aa…88d6backed Yes37c53.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes76c52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.