Movies · resolved market
Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc611a804906751019519fdd26308f3dc4d178af7292df0bf254e25b9796d2685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,870 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 0c | 22,413$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 6c | 3,576$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,437$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked No | 3c | 2,330$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…6a6ebacked No | 4c | 732.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 12c | 678$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…c56ebacked No | 5c | 587.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 4c | 567.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 17c | 560.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 485.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 467.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 448.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 329.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 6c | 328.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 258.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed No | 10c | 220.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 170.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 9c | 168.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 76c | 160.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 57c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.