Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9413222e8f0c5f0835d050284d3395d1fb3c4a19fc2183ceea3bb581aa3bd437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,157 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,760$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 7c | 2,295$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.67 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2774backed No | 6c | 1,609$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 20c | 599.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 539.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 7c | 517.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 77c | 427.23$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…934abacked No | 22c | 299.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…4288backed Yes | 78c | 299.96$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 29c | 277$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 26c | 252.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 18c | 128.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af5…0048backed Yes | 69c | 119.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 11c | 92.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 25c | 77.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 74c | 68.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 72c | 44.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 73c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9a…8bc4backed Yes | 79c | 12.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.