TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,379

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,379 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe0a…4a63backed No0c40,410$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a45…172abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…88dfbacked No65c3,523$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.723447.1%16 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes79c2,271$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.673672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c7…db3fbacked Yes66c2,093$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.162360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c1,692$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9615625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88ae…3255backed Yes76c1,222$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.82941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No24c871.31$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3818151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425f…5493backed No12c819.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No21c723.52$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.114036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No11c519$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.091030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed No35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756651.5%34 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No20c441.58$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd7…96d3backed No34c399.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1348643%37 W · 49 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf171…85febacked No29c348.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7485…b217backed No60c337$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48c4…2defbacked No61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2236…6e0cbacked No62c324.31$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No9c314.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb110…bd3fbacked No19c306.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-87.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes37c290.09$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.975930.5%18 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…c28cbacked No35c286.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No42c279.16$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.366066.7%40 W · 20 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No60c276$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.46per pick63cpaid-78.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked Yes21c250$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes39c250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+101.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed No63c226$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.653528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes40c225$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+92%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3b2…da22backed No9c206$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14813544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6332243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed Yes17c200$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1661533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes34c197.67$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7813639%53 W · 83 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+89.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed Yes40c195$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes40c193$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.81747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c168.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.897135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes72c150.62$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6617359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed No20c149$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.811454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes56c143.14$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3535652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked No35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes13c142.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.844928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked No24c141.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4321034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No7c136.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No21c134.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed Yes38c128.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.072729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes58c122.36$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.512462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+54.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed No11c107.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes66c104.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1834432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9619…fb18backed No39c102.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed No67c100.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-57.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed No19c100.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.886219.4%12 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3b…6b17backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144850%24 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No10c99.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1832345.2%146 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Yes42c98.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.346947.8%33 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No20c97.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc4…d5b6backed No17c96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…d94abacked No34c87.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70c…9b00backed No67c80$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No50c77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1840…0a05backed No62c76.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.722958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0373…ff0dbacked No28c76.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.364355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes30c74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8715953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes40c71.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.96560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0418…966ebacked Yes39c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98b8…7c83backed No51c70$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick64cpaid-77.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x752f…9fbebacked No20c55.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+78.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes34c54.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86045%27 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9f1…132dbacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No50c49.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9589617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1831728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbed8…973cbacked Yes37c44.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.463545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f6…8fdcbacked No65c44.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc64…c865backed No69c43.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed No35c41.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes38c37.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.495052%26 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71fc…1951backed Yes38c32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.871241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf65…178abacked No64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No60c28.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No51c24.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.476366.7%42 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes56c19.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.855375.5%40 W · 13 L+10.0wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+32.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes72c19.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5820131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes53c18.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.87520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852d…63c8backed Yes70c17.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eec…9a8cbacked Yes66c17.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.83943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bd…129bbacked No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.