Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf401597bca07855952a7e85d38cebba1c9db852e727393fcbc7f4511dd7fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,077 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,779$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.88 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 76c | 2,153$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.75 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 15c | 1,200$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.19 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed No | 9c | 1,107$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c4…2defbacked No | 14c | 706.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 18c | 599.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.99 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked No | 9c | 477$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 9c | 473$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 9c | 423.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…9844backed No | 8c | 392.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,202.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 16c | 365.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.67 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 11c | 347.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.93 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 19c | 330.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 7c | 287.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.68 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 46c | 275.26$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…fb18backed No | 74c | 271.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 75c | 266.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9fbebacked No | 14c | 207.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…1b6dbacked Yes | 61c | 201.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…81a7backed No | 10c | 198.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…6ecdbacked No | 17c | 179.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.18 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 13c | 154.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.72 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 126.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 20c | 125.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 69c | 122.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 70c | 116.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 19c | 111.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 76c | 97.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 13c | 94.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e21…f175backed Yes | 77c | 90.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 72c | 88.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 80.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 68.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 66c | 48.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 24c | 44.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 44.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfeb…2d04backed Yes | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -7.9wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…8345backed No | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 76c | 22.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed Yes | 64c | 17.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.