Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96666d4cd50494344e308fdeea1814058150eea2cf2d37a64da38737e2f9c1ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbed…804ebacked No | 3c | 2,093$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 61c | 1,254$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.62 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 79c | 498.78$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked No | 45c | 467.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 48c | 373.56$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 251$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…75efbacked No | 51c | 246.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…cf22backed No | 46c | 219.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…25cbbacked No | 53c | 215.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 57c | 206.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 49c | 205.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 55c | 182.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea95…f040backed No | 41c | 180.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…31c9backed No | 51c | 165.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 77c | 164.32$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed No | 49c | 150.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 116.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…8a8cbacked Yes | 80c | 104.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…5bddbacked No | 20c | 104.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 46c | 102.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 22c | 97.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…5426backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 61c | 78.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…a5c7backed No | 43c | 70.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 55c | 64.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 55c | 43.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2a7bbacked No | 54c | 42.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…7c83backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 64cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 46c | 38.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8b…64aabacked No | 47c | 37.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…6c4ebacked No | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…e2fabacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…1b0cbacked No | 43c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40a…b636backed No | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…26e3backed No | 48c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…9253backed No | 55c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd92…493fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.