Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97a75f0e00c7711f95c0c9c07d7306592dbfdf097c0258d2eccc42784aa6df73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,009 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dcb…8709backed No | 3c | 8,774$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,970$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…9ea1backed No | 1c | 3,886$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…15f3backed No | 3c | 3,133$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 833$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 69c | 669.07$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.73 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 75c | 487.56$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…b69cbacked Yes | 74c | 475.59$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…9f3fbacked No | 49c | 205.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 157.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51a…1d87backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073b…8ab4backed No | 31c | 48.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.