TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,682 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb04…ec13backed Yes49c5,219$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.22536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d4…4027backed No59c2,992$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.234665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes49c740.43$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c421.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No50c352.87$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.648040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed No35c292$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.811637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes41c230$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.533933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes40c181.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.85962.7%37 W · 22 L+8.4wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x45ef…143bbacked No60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.674955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes38c148.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.44825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325619.6%11 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c84.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.11,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2847…952fbacked No51c71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c58.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159226.1%24 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0373…ff0dbacked No51c49.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c3c…4169backed Yes70c28.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c14.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3414337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.