Movies · resolved market
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc86028a62c6081c399f15036ffcfbc9bc4bc04df7e73187cd11f21e19079eb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,134 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 77c | 5,274$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.79 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,222$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 18c | 693$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 25c | 665.63$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 27c | 359.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 18c | 348.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 30c | 242.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed No | 34c | 240$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…256fbacked No | 5c | 208.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 26c | 207$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 74c | 188.18$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…49b4backed No | 6c | 178.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 29c | 168.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…d141backed Yes | 68c | 147.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 48c | 145.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 135.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 134.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked No | 20c | 127.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…6338backed Yes | 76c | 121.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 28c | 91.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 85.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 29c | 69.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 65.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed No | 45c | 62.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…3e18backed Yes | 66c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f09cbacked Yes | 64c | 44.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 44c | 39.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…d59bbacked No | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 49c | 25.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: The Reunion" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Vladimir" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.