TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,507
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,507 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb028…8686backed No77c10,827$8,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,360.9523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes15c7,021$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,939.215054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes36c5,150$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.995151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes44c4,984$2,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,773.639434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked No64c4,437$2,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,856.717157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes30c3,522$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.1529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed Yes42c3,316$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.546028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes4c3,100$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9861612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+101.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes74c2,714$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.7229735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes46c2,000$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.8915059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c1,973$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.7613735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes41c1,808$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.7132739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes45c1,601$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.3418746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes10c1,600$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes37c1,357$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.9812631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes75c1,291$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.153622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes24c1,290$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.1613635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes79c1,160$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.5529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes31c1,127$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.4212451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No53c1,008$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.6813337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe977…c4d7backed Yes1c1,000$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9901100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+9,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd17…f596backed Yes1c1,000$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9901100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+9,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba5…9d01backed Yes2c1,000$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9802100%2 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,900%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c987.72$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.779745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes61c949.5$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36913440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes32c872.47$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.3817540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes46c818.53$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.8828524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes17c803$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.643423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c648.39$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9816741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes65c612.15$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.657945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c600$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46647328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No74c600$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4441650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes25c562.83$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.5426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No18c500$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes40c500$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.33151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes28c428$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.162944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes12c400$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3521643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No41c399.29$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1816453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6806…1429backed Yes80c334$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c332$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.845311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+47.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No57c298.48$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.663053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes28c297.64$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.452119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes71c276$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No9c271.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick26cpaid+99.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c263.1$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes16c260$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.423041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37fc…7717backed Yes36c238.76$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.762825%7 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7604…cd66backed Yes32c211.76$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes12c204.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.935729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes20c201$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fec…728ebacked Yes70c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1745831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c199.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.332781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes10c192.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.192013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes14c186.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1411825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Yes13c186$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.822433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes52c176.7$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.823847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes31c170$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.56837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes12c166$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.083844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked Yes13c154.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes28c152.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3313534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No68c152.33$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.788040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes21c135$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.652437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes47c117.63$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.634742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes10c117.55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.81164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Yes13c116.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d45…23d1backed Yes39c114.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+99.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes41c114.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.32937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes50c114$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4715149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked Yes12c112.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.152611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea7…60babacked Yes43c101.14$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.04650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd01f…5499backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905427.8%15 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16f…b703backed No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3013321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90746.8%5 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3132814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000a…611abacked Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No39c99.98$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9928528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c99.7$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.321,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes25c98.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.731947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3131…997ebacked Yes16c93.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+215.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.911553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+126.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No18c90$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes57c78.32$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.329851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08c…d74fbacked Yes16c76.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes40c75.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0810544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked No40c74.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7711421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e1c5backed Yes20c73.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.14944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7363…d406backed No78c70.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe61d…e172backed Yes76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed Yes71c55.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.94933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a70…cba6backed No74c55.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.53633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c55.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0bc…5601backed Yes70c55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.