Movies · resolved market
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x303dfc37da9c9c2c6709303c6ed4c05123e3b44bde6cc9da63ee910273180a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,374$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 78c | 4,135$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.56 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,818$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 22c | 3,708$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.51 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,973$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 18c | 921.69$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 799.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 4c | 792.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 22c | 648.17$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 545.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.82 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 385.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 349.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 21c | 346.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 16c | 249.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 13c | 242.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 14c | 227.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 17c | 212.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 10c | 206.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 6c | 201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 20c | 197.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…e590backed Yes | 32c | 192.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 21c | 186.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 7c | 169$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 152.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Yes | 35c | 70.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 25c | 46.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…e00fbacked No | 80c | 42.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da6…867fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 64c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…36f3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6.5m?this page
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?No won
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6.5m and 8m?No won
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m?No won
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.