Movies · resolved market
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8686f5a4944af3c1d2a7cea500d37dbdc9853f58cc4cda9e7987a14e8efd8ca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 60c | 9,279$5,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.53 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 58c | 7,452$4,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.65 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 40c | 7,134$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,310.33 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 48c | 6,712$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230.78 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 46c | 3,915$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.66 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 62c | 2,967$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.83 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 63c | 2,463$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.56 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 39c | 2,439$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.13 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,353$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,081$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 41c | 2,073$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.34 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 34c | 2,043$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.35 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 2,008$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.3 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.53 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,984$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.51 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,973$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.57 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 52c | 1,831$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.38 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,800$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.98 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 9cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 58c | 1,025$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.23 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.98 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba5…9d01backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 56c | 856.24$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.71 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 837.4$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.89 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 37c | 766.8$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.72 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 40c | 623.7$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 60c | 615$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 20c | 610$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 607.38$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.25 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 567.32$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.43 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 59c | 544.44$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.53 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 61c | 491.36$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed No | 39c | 447.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 441.72$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 28c | 428$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.16 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 45c | 382$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.86 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 50c | 369.07$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 63c | 365.92$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6806…1429backed Yes | 17c | 334.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 319.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 318.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 41c | 315$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 54c | 307$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 44c | 296.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 276$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 268.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 57c | 256.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 37c | 253$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 35c | 244.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…e590backed Yes | 47c | 239.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 214$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 64c | 201$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 196.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 11c | 194$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 58c | 186.68$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 68c | 185$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 71c | 171.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 64c | 170$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 60c | 167.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 166.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed No | 63c | 165.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 55c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 75c | 129.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 39c | 129.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 64c | 113$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 112$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…9698backed No | 75c | 109$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea7…60babacked Yes | 60c | 106.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 31c | 104.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 72c | 100.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…233cbacked Yes | 25c | 98.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 63c | 98.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…7b71backed Yes | 29c | 89.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 36c | 85.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 41c | 84.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 80.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…bd99backed Yes | 67c | 74.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 35c | 71.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Yes | 41c | 71.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 65.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da6…867fbacked No | 56c | 63.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 36c | 61.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 29c | 56.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 43c | 55.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 19c | 55.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?this page
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6.5m?No won
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6.5m and 8m?No won
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m?No won
- Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.