TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb028…8686backed Yes60c9,279$5,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,534.5323639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes58c7,452$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.6529735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ef…be38backed No40c7,134$2,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,310.336028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-33.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes48c6,712$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.7815054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x5684…7874backed Yes46c3,915$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.663636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes62c2,967$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.8329642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes63c2,463$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.567157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed No39c2,439$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.1312451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked Yes6c2,353$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.193423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes3c2,081$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.131612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+101.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No41c2,073$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.349434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes34c2,043$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.3517540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No17c2,008$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.39745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed No50c2,000$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.5315059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes51c1,984$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.5112631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c1,973$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5713735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes52c1,831$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.385151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes23c1,800$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.9832739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No10c1,600$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401729.4%5 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick9cpaid+344.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes58c1,025$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.2326041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes65c1,000$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.9813635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba5…9d01backed No2c1,000$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9802100%2 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,900%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes56c856.24$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.7118746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No55c837.4$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.8913337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes37c766.8$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7228524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc745…b952backed No40c623.7$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.222729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978d…5eddbacked Yes60c615$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.83426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes20c610$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1227945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c607.38$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No32c600$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.2532814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c567.32$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.4336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No59c544.44$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.533132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes61c491.36$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.13151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7604…cd66backed No39c447.8$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No59c441.72$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8720841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No28c428$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.162944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14428528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes45c382$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8611421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No50c369.07$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.663053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked No63c365.92$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.372937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6806…1429backed Yes17c334.26$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.421050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c319.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.591,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes11c318.13$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0314337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes41c315$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.62123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes54c307$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+47.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes44c296.51$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1913534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes24c276$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No40c268.75$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2523130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01f…5499backed Yes57c256.29$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.335427.8%15 W · 39 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes37c253$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6110544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes35c244.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8613440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf81…e590backed Yes47c239.68$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.521127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c214$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.965311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes64c201$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.41633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fec…728ebacked Yes20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c196.67$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.116741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes11c194$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked No57c192.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.985729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes58c186.68$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8611825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Yes68c185$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.882433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes71c171.04$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.632437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes64c170$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.16837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes60c167.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7422030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No34c166.78$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe423…2492backed No63c165.79$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked No55c140$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+42.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No75c129.9$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.473622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No39c129.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.232821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No64c113$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.426150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No23c112$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick26cpaid+99.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8143…9698backed No75c109$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea7…60babacked Yes60c106.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes31c104.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.283847.4%18 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a70…cba6backed Yes72c100.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked No36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641010%1 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick48cpaid-72.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.32030%6 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.711,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeeb8…233cbacked Yes25c98.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes63c98.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1d…7b71backed Yes29c89.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-61.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No36c85.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.464148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No41c84.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.153844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No51c80.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8319240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No37c79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.520850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2384…e4d5backed Yes64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c29…bd99backed Yes67c74.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes35c71.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-83.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e64…1824backed Yes41c71.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes46c65.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.910827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da6…867fbacked No56c63.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No36c61.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.672441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No29c56.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1326431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked No43c55.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.42488.3%4 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93b5…0f43backed Yes19c55.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28cd…d99abacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2eb…c299backed Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.