Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde5ff440e64559a522fdca0bd3404eb9cdc66c8e645d25993312aa90c1381871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 44c | 14,056$6,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,211.32 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 28c | 11,913$3,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.31 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 24c | 10,640$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.18 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 16c | 8,374$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.29 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 22c | 7,119$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.19 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 7,020$4,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,372.22 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…0a04backed Yes | 1c | 5,427$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 25c | 5,168$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.67 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 27c | 3,000$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.51 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 46c | 2,988$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 8c | 2,962$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 9cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 16c | 2,573$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.93 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed Yes | 67c | 2,528$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 38c | 2,371$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.22 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 64c | 2,315$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.28 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 14c | 2,047$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.8 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 69c | 1,870$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.06 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 29c | 1,440$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 12c | 1,322$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…986cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,272$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 16c | 1,150$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 61c | 1,020$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.71 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,001$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 937.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 21c | 934.21$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 54c | 905.93$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 860$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…edd4backed No | 77c | 807.28$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 799.96$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 23c | 788.87$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.44 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 733.03$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.8 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 70c | 676.34$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.88 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 29c | 620.6$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked Yes | 2c | 582.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 70c | 543.86$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 21c | 497.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.57 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 26c | 490$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 11c | 489.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 479.66$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 4c | 473$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 58c | 453.22$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 451.6$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 441.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 14c | 440.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 426.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked No | 60c | 393.11$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.92 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 64c | 382.01$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…5623backed No | 60c | 369$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…6b7cbacked Yes | 30c | 325$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 65c | 320.7$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 23c | 307.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 9c | 304.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…ce56backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 78c | 295.74$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 44c | 287.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 279.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 58c | 260.48$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 33c | 244.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba6…4a7dbacked Yes | 8c | 244.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…6b47backed Yes | 50c | 229.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 22c | 220.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 207.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 13c | 185$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 28c | 175.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 64c | 163.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…86abbacked No | 63c | 159.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…c243backed Yes | 13c | 158.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 19c | 156.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 150.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 58c | 136$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 126.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b58…211bbacked Yes | 53c | 125.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 49c | 121.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Yes | 41c | 119.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 72c | 119.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 61c | 118.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 115.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…4cb0backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed Yes | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed No | 62c | 111.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 48c | 109.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…5bd2backed Yes | 18c | 105.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked No | 62c | 101.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…443cbacked Yes | 67c | 96.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3f…a25ebacked Yes | 15c | 95.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +795%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 36c | 90.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 88.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 88.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…0be3backed No | 64c | 88.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?Yes won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.