Movies · resolved market
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19e63f61cfb9207fc815ce50f9c22ea06c754794e3faaea55b79a6dd669bb17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 47c | 18,742$8,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,907.16 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 68c | 18,613$12,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,954.23 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 72c | 7,785$5,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.11 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…0a04backed Yes | 17c | 7,700$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,409.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 20c | 7,577$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,027.55 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 28c | 7,048$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.23 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes | 70c | 6,587$4,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 79c | 6,490$5,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.66 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 50c | 5,675$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,851.76 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 41c | 5,126$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.63 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 69c | 3,981$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.36 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 14c | 3,796$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 54c | 3,643$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 42c | 2,244$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.14 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 68c | 2,220$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.3 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 68c | 2,101$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.97 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 51c | 1,899$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.37 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed Yes | 42c | 1,576$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.24 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 50c | 1,437$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 55c | 1,379$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.76 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 38c | 1,370$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…54b3backed Yes | 71c | 1,204$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 30c | 1,144$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.39 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 41c | 1,132$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,118$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 48c | 1,035$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.49 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 36c | 961.01$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.67 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Yes | 64c | 950$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 73c | 841.74$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.36 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…3d61backed Yes | 67c | 838.41$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 71c | 796.08$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.79 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 733.32$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.37 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 722.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 20c | 705.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.42 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 66c | 695.85$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 51c | 647.07$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.9 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 79c | 602.83$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 602.63$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.79 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 32c | 570.16$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 51c | 546.65$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.29 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 522.07$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.29 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 54c | 473.3$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 73c | 443.36$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 425.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 58c | 393.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 19c | 364.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.59 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 19c | 357.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 340.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.71 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 79c | 335.95$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 331.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6806…1429backed Yes | 48c | 325$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…6b7cbacked Yes | 66c | 325$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 66c | 320.45$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 59c | 311$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…ce56backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fae…5d6dbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…3cbfbacked Yes | 60c | 297.49$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 18c | 286.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 62c | 268$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 264.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.55 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 43c | 254.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 4c | 249.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 240$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 236.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 34c | 220$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 21c | 219.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 14c | 212.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked Yes | 58c | 210.34$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 19c | 205.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed Yes | 22c | 205.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e9ebbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c4…3687backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51aa…ace8backed No | 41c | 198.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 39c | 194.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 20c | 189.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd6…b8e0backed Yes | 66c | 180.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 61c | 170$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf489…4cb0backed No | 7c | 156.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 156$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…2960backed Yes | 74c | 143.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 43c | 126.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 125.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 47c | 118.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…173dbacked Yes | 44c | 113.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed No | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…f692backed No | 12c | 113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…e6d1backed No | 12c | 113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?this page
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 14.5m and 16m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 16m?No won
- Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.