World Politics · resolved market
Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd975f876dad57333829a144e7f37778e7f5ae06b79716d832d1c0454bdec7f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 18c | 2,330$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,326$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 27c | 2,032$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.79 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,775$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.86 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…922abacked Yes | 1c | 1,732$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 32c | 1,577$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.29 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,448$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,015$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 937.06$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.87 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 24c | 932$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…c753backed Yes | 7c | 775.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…516dbacked Yes | 3c | 747.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 742.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 651.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 3c | 459.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 447.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 363.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 30c | 335.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 36c | 270$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 26c | 228.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 220.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…99cfbacked Yes | 29c | 199.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 198$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…aff4backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 183.55$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 27c | 179.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 36c | 149.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6968backed Yes | 39c | 128.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…04fabacked Yes | 27c | 123.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…222dbacked Yes | 42c | 116.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…c2edbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 36c | 107.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed Yes | 26c | 102.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…004cbacked Yes | 37c | 102.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes | 24c | 94.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 93.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 30c | 82.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 31c | 78.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 33c | 76.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…a8c9backed Yes | 40c | 64.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…952fbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 31c | 57.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…5f82backed Yes | 43c | 50.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4859…b08ebacked No | 74c | 48.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…3e26backed Yes | 31c | 48.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…cdb0backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe66…8d3dbacked Yes | 38c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc042…c240backed No | 76c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre?this page
- Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?Yes won
- Will Franck Keller be the next mayor of Le Havre?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.