TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,071 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes44c18,795$8,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,481.0422433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes44c10,773$4,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,050.632334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No57c9,438$5,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.038632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb123…e6f2backed No57c6,695$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,821.061225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes42c5,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900.033426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes42c4,014$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.798636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No2c2,800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No12c2,550$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No54c1,847$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.637122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No16c1,800$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No56c1,551$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.6623330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c1,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes46c1,193$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.587030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes41c1,158$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.361030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes44c1,125$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.3614325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No55c573.35$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6411359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No56c462.39$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.781936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed Yes41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea8…36efbacked No65c384.62$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No16c343$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.883010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1652138.1%8 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+34.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes44c282.02$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.415330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…b66bbacked Yes44c269.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes45c266.25$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.763850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes42c242.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7917528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c241.45$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.711764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No56c222.8$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.057466.2%49 W · 25 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c214$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.662766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No55c210$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.04650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed No54c186$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4104…8b66backed Yes46c183$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c9…8cd0backed Yes46c181$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa388…9b20backed Yes46c179$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef2b…59bfbacked Yes45c167$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6188…3373backed Yes45c167$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe408…b7b8backed Yes46c164$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c1…c0d1backed Yes47c149$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d2…6a7fbacked Yes47c143$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes43c141.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6114024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef1…5a60backed Yes46c138$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…db3abacked Yes46c138$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes29c134.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.642934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c114.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9115148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes45c110.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.451225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes47c109.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.037525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes44c109.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5930918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No55c98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6412049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes43c97.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a78…e93fbacked No54c88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa9e…3c9abacked No55c81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes43c79.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.311618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes43c76.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.361668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0734…9cdabacked No55c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4665…7fc7backed No58c74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f8…ed27backed No55c69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked No63c62.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…fbb3backed No54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x517a…9fc6backed No53c57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4380…7d8dbacked No55c57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No53c54.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.14944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No55c54.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cd…a968backed No55c54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No60c52.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.713743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0748…103bbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2085…005dbacked No55c49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4728…fe59backed No54c48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98b7…27fabacked No54c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6170…1946backed No55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7843…a65fbacked No55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24b…6f2bbacked No55c44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce64…13edbacked Yes47c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes45c43.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.983450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37c…f3f4backed No55c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7198…7901backed No54c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed4…c3b5backed No54c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fcf…4d2abacked Yes48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb7…a911backed No54c39.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0a…7153backed Yes48c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e1…78c0backed No55c39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…2d34backed No57c39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f81…1912backed Yes47c37.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa038…d2ecbacked No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2502…8c47backed Yes34c36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes41c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f8…390ebacked No54c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c34.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9820242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes45c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2788…3c32backed No55c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c32.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.082222.7%5 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No54c31.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No60c31.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.911172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33e…b1dbbacked No54c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No55c30.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.42050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.