Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07b9b55da3e112495876b1f38c005ec4c66900d696aa08b33f15a825714c681e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 7c | 8,232$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.81 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 12c | 6,427$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.53 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 10c | 2,567$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.86 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,117$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,098$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 5c | 925.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 6c | 830.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 670.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 7c | 494.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 11c | 461.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 5c | 449.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 406.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 9c | 296.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 8c | 291$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 10c | 165.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 164.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…8c4ebacked Yes | 10c | 132.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 13c | 98.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 91.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…edf5backed Yes | 12c | 91.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 79c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in February?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in February?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in February?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.