World Politics · resolved market
Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97b77a500f99cab16b3c6e50c22cd1c179fedd6f90065fe058de9727d0ed4a3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,670 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 40c | 479$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 60c | 416.69$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.99 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b0…78f7backed Yes | 73c | 411.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 389.19$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.32 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 65c | 322.52$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…273fbacked Yes | 79c | 317$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…3b56backed Yes | 25c | 277.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 22c | 267.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.63 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 40c | 267$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 60c | 267$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 60c | 247$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 35c | 239.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 60c | 232$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…8ea8backed Yes | 43c | 214$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…f369backed Yes | 43c | 210$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 208.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067d…29cebacked Yes | 5c | 205.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…cd19backed Yes | 43c | 191$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…cdebbacked Yes | 43c | 179$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…3a95backed Yes | 43c | 179$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…b10dbacked Yes | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…b09ebacked Yes | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846c…aa38backed Yes | 42c | 169$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 160.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…aa5bbacked No | 57c | 151$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1541backed No | 58c | 148$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bd…9dabbacked No | 57c | 147$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Yes | 70c | 144.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ba…eba4backed No | 57c | 144$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ca…c721backed No | 57c | 142$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…1f9ebacked No | 57c | 141$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd3…f244backed No | 57c | 139$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c32…f5a3backed No | 57c | 132$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3f…1e05backed No | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…f778backed No | 57c | 123$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…d352backed Yes | 70c | 120.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…5ff8backed Yes | 70c | 107.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 102.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 84.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 32c | 79.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 64c | 73.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8358backed Yes | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +149%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…4b66backed Yes | 66c | 56.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…5196backed Yes | 48c | 49.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 75c | 43.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 44c | 37.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 30c | 37.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…61aebacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 34.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…42e1backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 30.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 42c | 29.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 54c | 29.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 56c | 28.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 51c | 28.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…5040backed Yes | 64c | 26.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…14d1backed Yes | 49c | 23.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 59c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 62c | 16.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…4ab7backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?this page
- Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?No won
- Will GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.