World Politics · resolved market
Will GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bfe7278bb081baa0a826a54ccbc5b6863dfe321dcc60f3f822fe9de33276f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83db…d78fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,046$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,622.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +527.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 9c | 2,261$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 12c | 1,910$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +376.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed No | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…05ecbacked Yes | 42c | 1,191$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…7a56backed No | 1c | 1,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…22e9backed Yes | 5c | 575.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 79c | 553.37$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 12c | 532$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 12c | 466$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 12c | 460$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 23c | 417.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.14 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67c8…7e80backed Yes | 13c | 377.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +277.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 24c | 316.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…65aabacked Yes | 19c | 276.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +437.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…e15cbacked Yes | 24c | 235.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 77c | 197.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…99febacked Yes | 20c | 189.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7c…3db5backed No | 80c | 189.56$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 9c | 174.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 68c | 146.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 146.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 8c | 125.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…f50bbacked Yes | 20c | 118.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 10c | 116.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8358backed Yes | 13c | 112.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +149%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…5ff8backed Yes | 20c | 99.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 72c | 97.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 75.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 16c | 63.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +538.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…1ee2backed Yes | 20c | 55.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 14cpaid | +564.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34c9…7dc6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 48.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 45c | 35.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 15.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GroenLinks (GL) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?this page
- Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?No won
- Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.