World Politics · resolved market
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d88881c817fddfd8a3605e4a496b901ec9f94e3938399a0957aadaa890fe29a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x981e…d368backed No | 80c | 1,232$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…41dcbacked No | 17c | 943.43$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…ee1dbacked No | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 80c | 799$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked Yes | 20c | 698$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 20c | 668$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 665$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 13c | 384.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.61 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 26c | 343.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 284.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…9cd8backed Yes | 8c | 266.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…974bbacked Yes | 33c | 231.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 197.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed No | 55c | 194.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…c452backed No | 51c | 138.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…ee81backed Yes | 78c | 127.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 123.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 18c | 99.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…dc55backed No | 66c | 88.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed Yes | 63c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d7c9backed Yes | 78c | 63.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 25c | 55.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed Yes | 46c | 54.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…e1e8backed No | 32c | 48.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…e3e3backed Yes | 50c | 41.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…ae73backed Yes | 59c | 40.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…2151backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…b525backed Yes | 66c | 38.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 40c | 36.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…5ec7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 60c | 19.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…1e80backed Yes | 75c | 18.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?this page
- Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Yes won
- Will Our Country (ND) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Yes won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Yes won
- Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.