World Politics · resolved market
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a1b19d55089b910bb4cf90d8ef6b77a1f43d4f62282788af35c0245dfdfb823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 65c | 2,520$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…d1cbbacked No | 32c | 1,499$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 52c | 532.13$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.77 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 43c | 498.06$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 9c | 284.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 30c | 258.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…c12fbacked Yes | 55c | 256.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 50c | 245.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 9c | 230.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…c452backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5133…657cbacked No | 17c | 144.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…d7c9backed Yes | 77c | 143.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 63c | 142.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…a744backed No | 71c | 139.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 22c | 137.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 20c | 126.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 102.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…0b54backed No | 48c | 93.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…573abacked Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +54%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…dc55backed Yes | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…9ac2backed Yes | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…7655backed No | 67c | 74.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 65c | 61.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 52c | 61.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b28…e85ebacked Yes | 53c | 47.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 51c | 46.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 45.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…0c4dbacked No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 44.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…d956backed Yes | 68c | 44.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 36c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…e186backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 63c | 36.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…e73abacked No | 58c | 29.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8619…8643backed Yes | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 75c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…b9cabacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…089abacked Yes | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…018abacked Yes | 72c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?this page
- Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Our Country (ND) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Prerod – Party of Vladimir Prebilič (PVP) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Yes won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?Yes won
- Will the Slovenian National Party (SNS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
- Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.