TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,779 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes18c3,028$540 inLost-$5402657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c2,126$300 inLost-$299.772020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…3afdbacked Yes9c821.09$77 inLost-$76.65616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf6…2117backed Yes4c765.25$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb146…c098backed Yes10c686.78$69 inLost-$69.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c681.06$35 inLost-$34.957521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes19c603.06$117 inLost-$117.172152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+52.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2177…3fb4backed No79c548.83$435 inWon+$114.083154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes19c476.47$91 inLost-$90.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes21c420.31$90 inLost-$89.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c416.11$15 inLost-$14.91823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c393$13 inLost-$12.9749511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed Yes22c300$66 inLost-$661163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick30cpaid+135.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed Yes17c300$51 inLost-$5140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes19c246.91$47 inLost-$46.914723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes22c225$50 inLost-$49.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-27.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes17c200$34 inLost-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed Yes17c200$34 inLost-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes13c190.86$25 inLost-$25.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed Yes22c150$33 inLost-$331526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes13c150$20 inLost-$19.5366914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbf16…9c6fbacked Yes20c86.8$17 inLost-$17.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No77c30.03$23 inWon+$6.918741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f4…546ebacked Yes52c28.97$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.