Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332e33327686c820dbcf771657c8ffe2ab8bf947f61fd94a49d0a5a9bafbb3e7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,312 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed No	80c	6,736$5,361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,374.11	343	33.5%115 W · 228 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe455…9e9ebacked Yes	24c	6,245$1,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,519.94	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No	77c	2,987$2,309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$677.83	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	2,340$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.92	75	21.3%16 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,226$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	494	11.5%57 W · 437 L	-17.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x498a…5e7bbacked Yes	12c	1,100$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.93	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc89b…f512backed Yes	23c	696$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.6	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	21c	538.76$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.03	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes	14c	405.14$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e8…d208backed Yes	36c	400$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	10c	372.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes	12c	344$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.76	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+5.4wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	326$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	104	2.9%3 W · 101 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9243…92dcbacked Yes	18c	315.28$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No	64c	222$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.92	180	41.1%74 W · 106 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf85…45a7backed Yes	7c	164$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No	76c	150$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9226…b7c4backed Yes	28c	124.14$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.2	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	22c	80.57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	183	10.4%19 W · 164 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No	72c	80$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	165	44.2%73 W · 92 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No	76c	78$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.97	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x497d…944cbacked Yes	14c	77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+4.2wins	+0.21per pick	24cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	27c	53.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	-10.0wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	22c	52.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed No	76c	20.93$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.03	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No	63c	18.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.84	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event