Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x557136ba7a8fe5e76e1e68d25e72eb7a210bb113b9b07fa0da8ad6540cd4fb05

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,819 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x472e…b6abbacked Yes	6c	5,090$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7693…8556backed Yes	5c	1,931$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x242b…ea2abacked Yes	12c	571.29$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.07	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	548.49$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.05	75	21.3%16 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	9c	288.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	183	10.4%19 W · 164 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	6c	205.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	75	24%18 W · 57 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	9c	201$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	17c	199.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.47	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed Yes	12c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	13c	142.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	495	11.5%57 W · 438 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes	11c	97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event