Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c4370663538d05ac11da9b5371d4951d8788d77e8447941c5141773855c8fc4

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,602 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes	2c	1,524$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.01	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes	4c	797$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes	6c	585.6$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	79	25.3%20 W · 59 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-45%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	11c	507.84$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.88	75	21.3%16 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes	27c	491$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.57	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No	80c	356$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.2	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed No	73c	310$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.7	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	244	33.2%81 W · 163 L	+11.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No	63c	286$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.82	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	35c	284$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.92	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes	20c	266$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-59.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	220$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	104	2.9%3 W · 101 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No	73c	205$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.35	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	61cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked No	63c	182$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.81	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+5.4wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	36c	172.34$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.68	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	+15.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes	34c	170$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.6	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	10c	168.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	182	3.8%7 W · 175 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No	73c	155$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.75	165	44.2%73 W · 92 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	10c	150.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	341	29.3%100 W · 241 L	-11.3wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	62c	139$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.65	248	61.7%153 W · 95 L	+24.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No	75c	137.08$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.27	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No	64c	134$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.24	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	33c	115$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	335	21.8%73 W · 262 L	-24.0wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No	68c	105.58$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.67	180	41.1%74 W · 106 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	15c	90$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	205	42%86 W · 119 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	36c	80.72$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	15c	76.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	183	10.4%19 W · 164 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked Yes	22c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	38c	70$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	497	11.5%57 W · 440 L	-17.8wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes	17c	66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	62c	60$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.7	181	26%47 W · 134 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed No	68c	50.97$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.1	229	48.9%112 W · 117 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	30c	42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-4.8wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x22ec…06efbacked Yes	24c	42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7227…3681backed Yes	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	36c	30.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	81	14.8%12 W · 69 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	37c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	75	33.3%25 W · 50 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1c3…4c56backed No	65c	20.1$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No	65c	18.29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.43	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event