TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Final Stage: Canada vs. USA

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
USAof Canada, USA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$391,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,278 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Canada14c59,315$8,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,372.361,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Canada10c47,743$4,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,990.957753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed Canada15c41,456$6,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2631353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canada14c18,760$2,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,561.4546547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Canada8c13,794$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.6216725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x066e…6f56backed Canada14c10,471$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.9440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Canada12c8,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Canada4c7,812$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2223036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed Canada4c7,041$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.621241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canada4c6,475$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.041,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Canada13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Canada9c4,686$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.6414039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Canada11c4,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canada10c4,049$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.181,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Canada0c3,802$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.693929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Canada13c3,184$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.98247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Canada7c2,877$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa842…ab57backed Canada2c2,840$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick36cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Canada10c2,496$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.897634.2%26 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Canada1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Canada21c1,963$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.63246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc7…e1febacked Canada1c1,736$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…8d4cbacked Canada12c1,600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+161.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80fe…b25bbacked Canada6c1,581$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Canada14c1,400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1966749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Canada14c1,258$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9420548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c8…8d03backed Canada4c1,128$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Canada4c1,034$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.712611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed Canada2c1,030$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Canada14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011638.8%45 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Canada10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11cc…d1debacked Canada16c954.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d2…f05cbacked Canada13c930.8$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf51…b232backed Canada6c829.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Canada13c799.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1049021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bfc…5943backed Canada13c786.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick18cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c0…434bbacked Canada13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a20…b23ebacked Canada14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Canada10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Canada15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Canada5c600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.585235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Canada21c563.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Canada10c522$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.086,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed USA70c501.35$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9921842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c5…90babacked Canada4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Canada7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510545.7%48 W · 57 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x529f…ffd4backed Canada2c499.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+79.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Canada12c493.87$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.582242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6061…cddebacked Canada4c493$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canada11c455.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Canada13c446.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6684049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Canada6c445.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Canada14c436.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.61030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6970…ef65backed Canada12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504238.1%16 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4712…29ddbacked Canada14c400.09$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.76955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Canada14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Canada6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Canada12c399.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4836729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bc…8b3cbacked Canada11c399.55$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8f…2c27backed Canada8c375.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Canada13c374$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.889241.3%38 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Canada14c360$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.47243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Canada13c349.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.341,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7810…b011backed Canada6c328.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a8…6c09backed Canada13c313.96$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.81100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Canada16c294.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.767846.2%36 W · 42 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Canada15c284.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6224950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…4d4cbacked Canada14c277.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.88633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d04…8859backed Canada11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…c1acbacked Canada14c270.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd7…3eb1backed Canada13c267.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.82650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Canada13c257$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.625944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac6…5d41backed Canada16c250.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Canada13c244.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.151,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ec…6fe7backed Canada11c243.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebf2…2addbacked Canada5c242.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Canada5c222.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+201%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Canada12c221.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.878,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7120…e630backed Canada13c220.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe9…dc0abacked Canada15c217.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca06…645ebacked Canada13c215.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43b…f955backed Canada17c200.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Canada13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2649450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Canada5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3886…c111backed Canada13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+285.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Canada11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+69.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8af3…bfa1backed Canada5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae1…165cbacked Canada13c193.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b54…dbd2backed Canada14c176.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Canada13c176$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.717750.6%39 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Canada7c169.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7296133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90b0…cf23backed Canada14c166$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Canada12c165.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.08825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+52.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Canada13c163$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1710353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5952…5642backed Canada10c157.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa29…a63fbacked Canada14c157.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Canada13c155$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.154544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6daa…dc38backed Canada13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Canada13c149.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.58336.1%30 W · 53 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf21b…894ebacked Canada14c143.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.