Weather · resolved market
Major solar storm by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29547befede0104729812835c3c19339e56ce1b5730a146cc1056deb6a464867
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,276$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 76c | 1,051$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 27c | 925$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 28c | 879$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 73c | 872.49$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.57 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 28c | 862$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 73c | 855$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 73c | 815$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 72c | 678$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 503.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 27c | 345$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 11c | 311$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe543…6aa0backed Yes | 5c | 297.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 72c | 295$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 72c | 290$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed No | 72c | 277$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 72c | 224$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 15c | 205.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 203.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 8c | 183.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 134.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a6…52cabacked Yes | 13c | 131.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a5…8325backed Yes | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 27c | 84.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 81.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 72.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 73c | 36.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.