TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,163

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,163 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes33c1,385$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No67c865$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.552025%5 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes44c845.92$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.2236945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe362…bd00backed No65c756.36$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.121540%6 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes35c359$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No65c287$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.551643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3bf…898dbacked Yes36c278$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda00…628cbacked Yes36c277$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked No65c275$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.751729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed No67c261$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.87837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No67c259$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.531172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+80.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89e8…80a8backed Yes36c250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7e…808bbacked Yes36c250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacb…23a5backed Yes33c245.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf38…853cbacked Yes36c223$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aeb…47b6backed Yes36c223$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba24…26afbacked Yes36c222$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab3…b3d0backed Yes36c222$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eee…4951backed Yes36c222$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b3…b5abbacked Yes36c222$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No70c212.74$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.052729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed Yes19c171.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.21560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No67c169.32$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.01650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes30c160.75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.976923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes64c157$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8607…f9f4backed No64c156$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes34c153.76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4720731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf831…1351backed No64c147$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…f4d1backed No64c140$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4a…e73ebacked No64c139$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked No58c137.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.772445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No67c128$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.761850%9 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a5a…3d2dbacked No64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4316…e229backed No64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa2a…089abacked No64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…e832backed No64c123$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167e…6380backed No64c121$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc13c…a0b3backed No64c121$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414a…e843backed No64c118$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d1…b9ffbacked Yes38c115.09$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.39977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes28c111$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.924242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba1f…aacabacked No64c111$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…1788backed No64c111$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0903…e9d4backed No64c110$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b0…4117backed No64c109$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes35c107$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…12e0backed No64c106$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c92…9cb5backed No64c105$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afb…7e6fbacked No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425038%19 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc834…40bebacked No64c99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fe…7b05backed No64c98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes26c96.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No63c96.19$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9214355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed Yes35c96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick40cpaid+120%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No69c91.7$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.122133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18fa…7a81backed Yes58c86.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.29520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-65.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78e5…e9b5backed Yes29c85.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes39c82.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.711428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes31c77.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5513738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x613f…b804backed Yes34c74.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd5…96e6backed Yes30c70.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x794c…fa17backed No69c68.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ff…b00abacked Yes38c65.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.961172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf738…b2bbbacked Yes33c60.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c58.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4911124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No21c57.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1314643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No66c56.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.483810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes35c54.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.844736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53f4…0e38backed Yes33c53.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.81457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes33c49.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.561855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8f…d0debacked No72c48.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No62c42.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.151060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+43.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No63c39.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0357426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes38c38.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1917350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes33c37.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No70c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06c9…119ebacked Yes31c32.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No56c30.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9213971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb37f…fdcfbacked No67c29.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.046855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7460…31e8backed Yes40c27.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No50c25.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64955.1%27 W · 22 L+6.3wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x918b…1cefbacked No53c24.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No56c22.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.686783.6%56 W · 11 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No73c20.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3420544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52532%8 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No70c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.453432.4%11 W · 23 L-7.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-47.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x241a…c5dabacked No75c14.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.