AI · resolved market
Will Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f5adf4d336f96904bc4cb1dfc04b87651bae427e4790e3e6c51f15f43d549f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,232 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,944$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 61c | 672$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 61c | 647$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…2d8abacked No | 61c | 625$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 57cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 38c | 439$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 32c | 384$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 32c | 375$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 69c | 328$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 31c | 328$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 7c | 327$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 62c | 282$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 68c | 272$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 68c | 244$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 68c | 243$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 74c | 216.86$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 62c | 157$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 60c | 67.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…705dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 44c | 40.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 37c | 33.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 58cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 52c | 29.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?this page
- Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Agent" or "Agentic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Alpamayo" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Autonomous" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Blackwell" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Data Center" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Deep Learning" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "FSD" or "Full Self-Driving" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?No won
- Will Jensen Huang say "GPU" 5+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Google" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Invest" or "Investment" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Microsoft" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" 3+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "OpenAI" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Partner" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Training" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang say "Vera Rubin" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.