Us Politics · resolved market
LA curfew enacted by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e23ea3a1939ad9a581487e7ac4e7afc5f53a6c5c0c24a9776125b19548ff2ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 77c | 6,017$4,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,638.62 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 23c | 4,150$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.02 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 2c | 2,418$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 28c | 2,178$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.36 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,882$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 58c | 1,516$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.85 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 23c | 1,332$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.3 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed Yes | 54c | 1,051$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 78c | 1,040$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 22c | 929.47$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 864.8$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.91 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 24c | 802.4$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.44 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 77c | 800$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 76c | 637.01$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.5 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 45c | 597.38$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.75 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 590$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 553.85$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 73c | 550$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked Yes | 21c | 500$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +74%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 22c | 465.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 62c | 449.3$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.45 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 434.14$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.46 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 433.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…717dbacked No | 80c | 418.21$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 400$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…57c2backed No | 72c | 400$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 71c | 309.29$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 50c | 302.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 19c | 201$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 60c | 166.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 140.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0299backed Yes | 22c | 127.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 70c | 108.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…de87backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +358.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…9d9cbacked No | 78c | 98.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed No | 80c | 83.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 15c | 76.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 67c | 68.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 43.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 78c | 43.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…ad57backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.