Poker · resolved market
World Series of Poker – American winner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ba1e814d62d6a99a2b1798a86987d508858a6e457873f55b1e9131e06dad83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 2c | 20,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 2c | 8,452$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 67c | 4,142$2,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…c075backed Yes | 67c | 3,845$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed No | 50c | 2,900$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 51c | 1,515$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 48c | 1,487$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…05afbacked No | 43c | 1,446$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 60c | 695.07$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…b277backed Yes | 60c | 582.57$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…cd8bbacked No | 53c | 552.96$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed No | 40c | 541$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 33c | 454.37$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed No | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 31c | 444$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 35c | 329.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…00aabacked No | 50c | 326.32$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 37c | 271.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35f…f7f8backed Yes | 60c | 220$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 51c | 201.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 50c | 190$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…a86ebacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d12…624cbacked No | 65c | 155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…ec43backed Yes | 70c | 141.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 60c | 122.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 38c | 106.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 72.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 52c | 69.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 56c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 34c | 44.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes | 43c | 42.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…5bd7backed No | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 53c | 40.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…1d92backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…0d31backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…64a1backed Yes | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.