TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump announce military action against Iran before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c5,172$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.851,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes48c4,505$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,342.445642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes36c4,073$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.425832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes48c2,992$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.9111428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No55c2,574$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.45756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked No65c2,092$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.413221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No62c1,717$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.212540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes37c1,000$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.85437%20 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes36c850.27$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.755618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed Yes35c567.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No56c488.18$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.793231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No12c477.44$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0218322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c400$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed No54c369.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d34cbacked No60c331.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No7c304.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0536527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…d0dcbacked No9c288.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No70c287.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-58.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes71c279.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.756431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8505…68cabacked No61c271.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No58c250$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.795265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes40c249.39$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No5c236.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4918516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes50c234.72$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.093240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes43c232.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.474332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc588…2949backed Yes44c216.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.062725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No56c215$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.237740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…f2c9backed Yes43c208$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.21050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+112.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1938…8e37backed Yes48c206.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes51c206.65$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-59.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1289535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…049fbacked Yes30c191.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No66c189$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.747447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6be6…be2fbacked No57c175.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4733…1b3ebacked No58c172.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c171.46$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes39c169.54$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9544111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes69c166.49$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.958169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed No52c153.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.984526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd870…8a7ebacked No65c150$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes30c149.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.993043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe685…b715backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe97f…b920backed No71c141.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes44c132.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.535817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ad…152dbacked No57c127.8$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No14c125.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.86530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c120.23$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.411,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7af9…3712backed Yes39c110$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2abb…0045backed Yes40c109.48$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eed…c9a4backed Yes37c106.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdfb…c05cbacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453020%6 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes34c83.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.324839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x412c…212fbacked No64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked No62c65.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.393625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes63c63.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.28850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+57.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.817355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x242f…c79cbacked No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…8763backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2eb…0f85backed Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…37b7backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No56c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.121631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4403…7c46backed No65c46.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick69cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes50c42.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.071631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked No66c36.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.842272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No57c33.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0614624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b34…7eb8backed No46c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…e66bbacked Yes38c31.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca68…0626backed No49c30.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2f…d8f8backed No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.811854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c22…4d8dbacked No49c27.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No62c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.742857.1%16 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+86.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No46c24.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.213154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed No53c24.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.892025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed No48c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.563053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0375…c7debacked No63c21.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3c…48c8backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0c…e304backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7075…c796backed No59c18.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cea…ea73backed No66c16.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd682…3f90backed No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9925…baa3backed No64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.