Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce military action against Iran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff458dac9abcf69cdb56a41c445738058a829b281992d5fe3388f0b3936211d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,172$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 48c | 4,505$2,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.44 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 36c | 4,073$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.42 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 48c | 2,992$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.91 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 55c | 2,574$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked No | 65c | 2,092$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.41 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 62c | 1,717$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 36c | 850.27$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.7 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 35c | 567.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 56c | 488.18$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.79 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 12c | 477.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 400$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 54c | 369.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d34cbacked No | 60c | 331.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 304.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 9c | 288.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 70c | 287.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 71c | 279.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…68cabacked No | 61c | 271.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 40c | 249.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 5c | 236.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 50c | 234.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.09 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 43c | 232.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 44c | 216.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.06 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 56c | 215$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…f2c9backed Yes | 43c | 208$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1938…8e37backed Yes | 48c | 206.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 51c | 206.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…049fbacked Yes | 30c | 191.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 66c | 189$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…be2fbacked No | 57c | 175.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…1b3ebacked No | 58c | 172.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 171.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 169.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 69c | 166.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 52c | 153.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…8a7ebacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…b715backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…b920backed No | 71c | 141.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 44c | 132.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…152dbacked No | 57c | 127.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 14c | 125.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 120.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…3712backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 40c | 109.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eed…c9a4backed Yes | 37c | 106.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…c05cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 34c | 83.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…212fbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 65.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…4fc7backed Yes | 63c | 63.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…c79cbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…8763backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…0f85backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…37b7backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 69cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 50c | 42.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 66c | 36.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 57c | 33.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…e66bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca68…0626backed No | 49c | 30.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…4d8dbacked No | 49c | 27.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 46c | 24.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 53c | 24.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…c7debacked No | 63c | 21.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…48c8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…e304backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7075…c796backed No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cea…ea73backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…3f90backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…baa3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.