Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump mention "South Park" by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5435815577045c8c379e618f72bc2061b456ee8c7d3c5aca1a0d6c8b6ccd8ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 0c | 23,658$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,583$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 3,418$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed No | 75c | 1,814$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 26c | 1,138$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.48 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa293…ae29backed No | 5c | 1,099$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 34c | 966.55$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.18 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 75c | 780.11$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.19 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 73c | 766$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 21c | 691.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.75 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed No | 80c | 628$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 28c | 567.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.23 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 2c | 566.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe171…ab39backed No | 69c | 458.25$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 70c | 455.59$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed No | 2c | 440.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 364.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…d39abacked No | 3c | 286.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 35c | 270.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4020…11d1backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efc…8220backed No | 9c | 254.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…4743backed No | 38c | 238.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 78c | 178.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 75c | 175.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked No | 78c | 154.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 144.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…d8b4backed No | 79c | 130$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 11c | 129.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…1cafbacked Yes | 27c | 108.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bf…df94backed Yes | 21c | 104.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +382.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 43c | 89.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…a0aabacked No | 76c | 86.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 27c | 86.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…8530backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed No | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…5c30backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…ccf3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 46.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…cf76backed No | 61c | 41.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…0b4ebacked No | 79c | 35.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 78c | 34.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 57cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…d6d2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebd…3769backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6198…82bfbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87c…8c12backed No | 74c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…6228backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.