TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,511

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1955…aef1backed No63c3,689$2,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.0116544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,039$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.523989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed No22c1,819$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.433348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9411120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes77c1,412$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.921935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd7…46bbbacked Yes80c1,045$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes79c890.99$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked Yes75c784.15$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.491631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-55.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No34c755$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.278036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed No54c705.51$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.021136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2396…1f2cbacked Yes72c700$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes5c634.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.288229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes65c603$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.0115238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ed6…458cbacked No65c602.14$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f59…7f66backed Yes70c570.56$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes23c543.71$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.18195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-93.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes48c523.46$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.0517452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes4c510.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.257432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bc…f829backed Yes59c497.28$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No42c451.61$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.2719435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No24c425.09$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.7710630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes31c389.2$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…150ebacked Yes56c376.78$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c358.5$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c356.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.011,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5911…e003backed No64c311.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6855…4639backed No40c271.73$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed No24c270.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…60e7backed No19c269.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.89837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+184.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No42c269.03$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.245438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes14c251.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1914624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No40c249.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes5c249.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.792010%2 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No64c247.22$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.519638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No37c242.48$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4812545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b33…2d2cbacked Yes5c213.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…4ea5backed Yes15c203.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No65c201$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3517850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcab2…d9f7backed Yes73c200.58$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2711…cd8bbacked Yes78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd7…a691backed Yes12c197.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed No20c190$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1524231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No22c187.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.888142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c180$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No64c168.94$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.194158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes39c166.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5114460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Yes75c166$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.625149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35b…4e4cbacked Yes65c164.08$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7518…a533backed Yes62c161.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes53c159.66$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d72…fefdbacked Yes77c129.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9065…f13abacked No40c127.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a4…0b9ebacked Yes79c127.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick65cpaid-38.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9206…8588backed No41c123.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes32c122.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393852.6%20 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No63c115.03$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.633060%18 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc462…7e23backed Yes36c112.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes47c110.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.584839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes46c105.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No58c105.01$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.794946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6bd…648bbacked Yes36c97.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ce…f071backed Yes53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec8…e8eabacked Yes63c92.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes49c90.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd68e…8b50backed Yes51c89.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e1…b862backed Yes69c87.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e9c…b879backed Yes49c80.59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No67c79.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.512065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd2…0d3fbacked Yes66c73.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No69c72.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.641040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked No29c62.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.422352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2633…67b1backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca2…7134backed Yes70c56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No43c54.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.285961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a5…92e0backed No38c52.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.621136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+80.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked No38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31fb…72b8backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215034%17 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+73.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8849…eb2abacked Yes70c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea0…8e12backed No68c40.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.23844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes30c35.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.716645.5%30 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes53c35.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5837740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9a…a11fbacked No30c34.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes46c32.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.048757.5%50 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe23d…93a4backed Yes61c32.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d49…44febacked No35c32.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+122.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b4…9560backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a45…b608backed Yes61c29.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…9e43backed Yes52c28.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes46c28.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.124810.4%5 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7950…80e4backed Yes73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bd1…ed0ebacked No47c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf65f…8240backed Yes76c26.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid+66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7a…829ebacked No49c20.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.