Us Politics · resolved market
Will courts block Trump's travel ban before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ffd6ea5defb65a059a2e5fdc4799e801bdd2ea342e1ffc4748adbfd798460f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 13c | 3,315$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed No | 61c | 1,120$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 629$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 38c | 573.71$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.59 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 57c | 553.11$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.08 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 53c | 416.08$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 49c | 399.86$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 47c | 379.05$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.15 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 46c | 372.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 38c | 330.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.11 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 43c | 268.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 210.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 38c | 169.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 46c | 158.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…f7f4backed No | 32c | 158.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 12c | 151.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…8accbacked Yes | 73c | 137.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 54c | 108.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 39c | 102.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 93.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 62c | 72.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 51c | 64.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 54c | 64.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 35c | 61.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137a…6b3fbacked No | 40c | 58.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 71c | 56.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 51c | 55.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8e…81a5backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…7629backed No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…5f43backed No | 74c | 43.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…5d2dbacked No | 50c | 40.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe15…3c65backed Yes | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 55c | 38.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc892…29dfbacked No | 58c | 37.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…7a01backed No | 64c | 37.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 37c | 35.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 54c | 20.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…2c5bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.