Weather · resolved market
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d1262c631910a24fb6bd0d561cf38688ef001c89c4b7aa374b9d5f1ff4a1367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,180$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 75c | 1,543$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 78c | 1,435$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.45 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…8855backed Yes | 28c | 705.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 690.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 14c | 681.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 71c | 650$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 15c | 609.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 606.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 74c | 575.14$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 539.34$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…9eabbacked Yes | 4c | 505.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,252.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…118fbacked Yes | 25c | 407.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 24c | 368.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 364.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…448fbacked Yes | 9c | 343.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…a0e4backed No | 77c | 324.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 21c | 314.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 80c | 201.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…4953backed Yes | 25c | 197.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 79c | 194.63$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…5f0fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…8c2dbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…7fe0backed No | 78c | 127.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ef…036dbacked Yes | 23c | 110.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…069abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe8…0ec5backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked Yes | 24c | 98.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8a…1c45backed Yes | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 75c | 79.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…b6fabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16d…65fbbacked No | 74c | 73.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 27c | 72.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…b472backed Yes | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…6bf8backed No | 76c | 62.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…3055backed Yes | 39c | 51.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…4091backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed No | 61c | 42.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 24c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 77c | 40.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…d452backed Yes | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c639backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed No | 74c | 27.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc899…745ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ee…8836backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed No | 78c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc8…5b76backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.