Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid or Bitcoin all time high first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0738f1fc42cd6689ecc51afa26f7a260d41226a2eeff214be3270b869b0b553a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bitcoinof Hyperliquid, Bitcoin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Bitcoin | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Hyperliquid | 24c | 83.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbf…5032backed Bitcoin | 53c | 64.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…6846backed Bitcoin | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…2218backed Hyperliquid | 50c | 40.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…911dbacked Bitcoin | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Bitcoin | 50c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Bitcoin | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked Bitcoin | 68c | 25.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Bitcoin | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Bitcoin | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.