Movies · resolved market
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05064c8db05bbf1791a7a795d1624eaffff06e2952f98c64bb8bb21f008972dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b7a…8d5cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,748$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…11ecbacked Yes | 7c | 3,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 1c | 1,036$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 2c | 936$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 868.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2674…dc91backed Yes | 5c | 670$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 530$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…ac15backed Yes | 3c | 512.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…14fabacked Yes | 3c | 508.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619e…f583backed Yes | 2c | 505$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 3c | 338.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 55c | 242.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.32 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…0cf6backed Yes | 45c | 235.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed No | 72c | 207.32$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 74c | 128$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9f…d89fbacked Yes | 12c | 125.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37d…da9bbacked Yes | 25c | 122.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4ccdbacked Yes | 33c | 85.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Run Away" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.