Movies · resolved market
Will "Run Away" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d85a9cdddaae3a0b80edccaf6bae32163089b421e9a3bb00f70f38ce62d7e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 14c | 9,070$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 25c | 1,025$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.34 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 76c | 938.5$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 20c | 650$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 78c | 580$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 21c | 549.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 4c | 526$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 458.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…d43dbacked Yes | 24c | 415.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 65c | 385$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 346.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 29c | 289$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 67c | 236$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 165.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 139.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…75fabacked No | 75c | 137.51$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 61c | 135$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 129.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 127.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…6baebacked Yes | 67c | 95.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 58.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 57.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 52.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…41e8backed Yes | 68c | 50.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4ccdbacked No | 54c | 40.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…4d00backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f8…e79cbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189f…11cdbacked Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf50d…2a9bbacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…8962backed Yes | 68c | 22.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Run Away" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)this page
- Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.