TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Eliot Spizzirri vs Jannik Sinner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sinnerof Spizzirri, Sinner
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,511,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,485,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,511,143 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1433…56a0backed Spizzirri38c156,089$59,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,335.3610541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Sinner73c153,205$112,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,047.6727063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sinner60c74,239$44,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,344.3965647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Spizzirri14c71,833$9,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,949.3223126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Spizzirri32c71,601$22,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,762.2711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Spizzirri8c70,411$5,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,914.7823731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sinner58c64,429$37,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,752.261,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sinner69c55,166$38,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,842.056,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Spizzirri66c50,000$32,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,958.4510162.4%63 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Spizzirri4c33,399$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.011,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Spizzirri8c32,540$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.881822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Spizzirri8c31,931$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.9417823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Spizzirri24c31,276$7,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,482.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Spizzirri30c30,364$9,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,062.262,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spizzirri7c28,088$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.178,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Spizzirri38c26,590$10,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,192.971827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Spizzirri6c24,177$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.923525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked Spizzirri0c24,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spizzirri1c23,723$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.6425428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Spizzirri1c22,958$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6612322%27 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Spizzirri1c20,738$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6610043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Spizzirri26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20011633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Spizzirri16c19,287$3,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,145.972334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spizzirri1c17,810$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.751,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Spizzirri3c13,099$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.754010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c73…7502backed Spizzirri11c13,002$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Spizzirri49c12,654$6,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,177.2537540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Spizzirri6c12,222$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.232,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Sinner65c10,388$6,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,682.5225542%107 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sinner62c10,290$6,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,875.114,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Spizzirri9c10,053$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.2946030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Sinner58c8,992$5,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,766.21,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Sinner63c8,866$5,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,283.1813934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Spizzirri9c8,408$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.442,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf59b…6ea1backed Spizzirri1c8,306$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Spizzirri3c7,729$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4322737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Sinner72c7,651$5,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.1699044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Spizzirri48c7,503$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,602.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Spizzirri77c7,444$5,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,766.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Sinner62c6,786$4,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.3965558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Spizzirri1c6,754$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Sinner55c6,618$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,978.078825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c37…9b8cbacked Spizzirri14c6,534$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.156050%30 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Sinner62c6,469$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.7815244.1%67 W · 85 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Spizzirri28c6,000$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.6957645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…7dcebacked Spizzirri2c5,850$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.07258%2 W · 23 L-6.2wins-0.25per pick33cpaid-77%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Sinner63c5,839$3,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,173.624266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1da…0370backed Sinner78c5,617$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.772339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Spizzirri13c5,579$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.383823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdad9…6b63backed Spizzirri32c5,475$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.41837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Spizzirri32c5,350$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.0914343.4%62 W · 81 L-14.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sinner67c5,221$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,738.773,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed Spizzirri2c5,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.782218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Spizzirri1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5586835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Spizzirri23c4,977$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.031,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Spizzirri10c4,673$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.213321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Spizzirri39c4,613$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7809348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Spizzirri5c4,510$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.744423.9%106 W · 338 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Spizzirri46c4,169$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.813363.9%85 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc13…5e09backed Sinner61c4,000$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.25785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3d6…8b36backed Sinner60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+68.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a7…a2f0backed Spizzirri22c3,938$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.151931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Spizzirri55c3,665$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.8129654.4%161 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Spizzirri2c3,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4625722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Spizzirri6c2,735$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.34626.1%12 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52c…450cbacked Sinner79c2,734$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.555052%26 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked Spizzirri37c2,686$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Sinner63c2,620$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.946331.7%20 W · 43 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Spizzirri36c2,488$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.6622723.8%54 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Spizzirri3c2,412$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.692,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…02aabacked Sinner66c2,365$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.1312752%66 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spizzirri12c2,314$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.057,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Spizzirri1c2,281$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5712033.3%40 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sinner78c2,221$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.61,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Spizzirri17c2,210$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Spizzirri10c2,121$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.6814243%61 W · 81 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Sinner74c2,028$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.2311242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Spizzirri11c2,000$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2262231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb788…2b73backed Spizzirri1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+450.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Spizzirri9c1,923$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.032437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…c206backed Spizzirri2c1,806$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288619.8%17 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x468e…9e78backed Spizzirri1c1,801$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee2…8a14backed Spizzirri2c1,731$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Spizzirri1c1,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0817436.8%64 W · 110 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa924…9c72backed Spizzirri24c1,663$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002737%10 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Sinner65c1,635$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.855232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83b0…4013backed Spizzirri28c1,624$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb227…7553backed Spizzirri2c1,609$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306445.3%29 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1393…ba33backed Sinner64c1,556$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.410640.6%43 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Spizzirri1c1,555$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.044599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Spizzirri35c1,544$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.075444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Sinner64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54013826.1%36 W · 102 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e9…e33ebacked Spizzirri13c1,485$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.372030%6 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+166%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Spizzirri1c1,408$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21089.3%10 W · 98 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Spizzirri2c1,400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5744125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Sinner30c1,397$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.569154.9%50 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Spizzirri38c1,332$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Spizzirri23c1,332$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Spizzirri4c1,321$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3412740.2%51 W · 76 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spizzirri40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.