IPO · resolved market
Discord IPO in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1209aa6642658fc83658bc1f84dec8352a3e9d8a9950b0fb9fbf211d9a6a1ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 6,827$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.88 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 30c | 2,253$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,633$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…bb62backed No | 66c | 1,600$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 73c | 1,350$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,239$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 20c | 1,042$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 3c | 806.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 74c | 796.52$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 30c | 770.28$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +165%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 23c | 726$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 634.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…a451backed Yes | 10c | 620.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 70c | 529.97$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…cbabbacked No | 77c | 450$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 72c | 404$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…3ababacked Yes | 25c | 392.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 8c | 326.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 325.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…f3b4backed Yes | 13c | 309.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 23c | 308.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…30c7backed Yes | 33c | 306.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 77c | 250.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 26c | 210$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee5…b0dcbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…1d4bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…2a47backed Yes | 23c | 196.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…4c29backed No | 70c | 181.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 15c | 157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4cd0backed No | 69c | 144.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…4404backed No | 80c | 125.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 20c | 123.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…b506backed No | 80c | 123.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 20c | 111.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacb…c39cbacked Yes | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed No | 76c | 93.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 93.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f3…c947backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…ab07backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…fefbbacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…ab5fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9581…1232backed No | 69c | 57.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 48.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +133%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f18…7435backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Discord IPO in 2025?this page
- Anduril IPO in 2025?No won
- Anthropic IPO in 2025?No won
- Anysphere (Cursor) IPO in 2025?No won
- Applied Intuition IPO in 2025?No won
- Brex IPO in 2025?No won
- Celonis IPO in 2025?No won
- Databricks IPO in 2025?No won
- Deel IPO in 2025?No won
- Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?No won
- Freddie Mac IPO in 2025?No won
- Glean IPO in 2025?No won
- Mistral AI IPO in 2025?No won
- Once Upon a Farm in 2025?No won
- Ramp IPO in 2025?No won
- Remote IPO in 2025?No won
- Ripple Labs IPO in 2025?No won
- Rippling IPO in 2025?No won
- Stripe IPO in 2025?No won
- Vanta IPO in 2025?No won
- Wealthfront IPO in 2025?Yes won
- xAI IPO in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.